WAR, genocide, coup, murder, assassination, mass shooting and terrorism: about the only nerve-wracking headline news that can displace these depravities are air disasters. Statistically, the odds assure us that commercial air travel, despite the latest horrors, is by far the safest long-distance commute.
Annually, the chances of an air disaster are 1-in-13.7 million. People are more likely to get killed in a highway accident on the way to the airport or tripping over an airport escalator.
The odds of that happening are one-in-107 while the lifetime odds are one-in-93. The air fatality rate in 2023 was only 17 per billion passengers, down from 50 per billion in 2022.
Between 2008 and 2017, it was one fatality for every eight million air passengers. Need more assurances? Air travel is safer than train rides, registering 0.01 deaths per 100 million miles to 0.04 deaths per 100 million miles, respectively. Humans are more likely to be struck by lightning than die in airline accidents.
Passengers are more prone to extended flight delays and technical glitches and, this is quite the phenomenon, air rage and scuffles that force mid-air reroutes to an emergency landing.
The odds are overwhelmingly pro-passenger, so banish any fears and proceed with the travel plans. Nevertheless, scheduled commercial air transport accidents recorded 19 air disasters this year, two occurring just this month, as opposed to 72 last year, a 50 per cent drop from 2022. The latest: Jeju Air flight 7C2216 crashed on Sunday at South Korea's Muan International Airport, killing 179.
This crash was horrifying. Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243, an Embraer E190AR, crashed on Christmas Day, killing 38 while 29 survived. Initial reports claim the Embraer was hit by migratory birds but evidence has emerged that a surface-to-air missile downed the plane. Azerbaijan has blamed Russia, whose leader Vladimir Putin has apologised.
While commercial flights are highly dependent on equipment airworthiness, and flight and ground crew technical skills, which keeps improving, aircrafts aren't designed to outmanoeuvre heat–seeking missiles.
That is unless the aircraft, like Air Force One, is armed with counter–measures to neutralise the lethal threat. In hindsight, the Azerbaijan aircraft and, 10 years ago, Malaysia Airlines MH17 and dozens of hapless commercial flights over the decades, would have coveted for such counter–measures, at least as a fighting chance of surviving a mid-air annihilation.
Sensibly, commercial airlines avoid airspace where planes, deliberately or inadvertently, are possible targets, preferring alternative but more ponderous and costlier trans-continental routes. Because of necessity, not flying isn't a practical option although it's unnerving, given the recent tragic outcomes.
So, for the sake of passenger sanity, embrace the favourable odds and remember: flying also means enjoying fine dining up in the clouds, watching the latest Hollywood blockbusters and perhaps even the delightful company of an interesting co-passenger.