WILL COP29, the annual United Nations climate summit that began in Baku, Azerbaijan on Mon day, be a fortnight of fortune or a fortnight of misfortune for the world?
The choice will become clearer as the argument advances. Firstly, it cannot be held at a more unpropitious time. The 1.5ºC warming limit set in Paris in 2015 has already been breached.
Granted, a breach this year of the limit doesn't mean 1.5ºC is gone forever as such a ceiling is averaged over decades, not a year. But still, it is an ominous sign.
If a 1.5ºC is enough to cause deadly floods in Valencia in Spain, where at least 222 people were killed, imagine what a warmer climate will have in store for the world.
Little wonder, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres described 2024 as a "masterclass in climate destruction".
Secondly, host Baku has badged COP29 as "COP Finance", not "COP Transition", which many developing nations were hoping the theme to be.
Had it been so themed, it would have been an advancement to the consensus reached at COP28 in Dubai, after 27 years of trying to put transition from fossil fuels as the main agenda.
For sure, climate finance is important, especially for developing nations that can ill afford to develop their own clean-energy industry. Or to get their countries to adapt to the impacts of extreme weather. More on this later.
Baku would have done better if it had themed COP29 as "COP Transition". For one, fossil fuels are the primary cause of climate change.
Media reports quoting COP29 sources say emissions from burning oil, gas and coal are expected to rise 0.8 per cent by the end of the year.
This is not the way to reach net zero by 2050, says the UN. To keep global warming to no more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, emissions need to be reduced by 43 per cent by 2030.
Much of this reduction must happen in G20 countries, which account for about 77 per cent of emissions while the 47 least developed countries contribute only three per cent, UN figures suggest.
The brutal truth is this: only a few countries are big emitters. If they do more and sooner to reach net zero, they can save the planet.
Now back to climate finance, our final point that will determine where COP29 is headed. At COP15 in Copenhagen, developed countries agreed to mobilise US$100 billion by 2020 for climate action in developing countries.
After failing to reach the target for two years, the fund hit US$115.9 billion in 2022.
By all estimates, this is inadequate to meet the climate action needs of developing nations. One estimate of recent vintage is US$1 trillion a year by 2035. If it took years to come up with US$100 billion, it will take even more years to reach US$1 trillion.
COP29 president, Azerbaijan Environment Minister Mukhtar Babayev, writing in The Guardian on Monday, made a case for private finance saying, "there simply isn't enough money in the world to fund developing countries".
Not exactly right. Last year, developed nations spent US$2.4 trillion on weapons alone. There is money, but it is wasted on wars. This isn't the way to save the planet.