THE battle for transportation supremacy between internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles is starting to take its toll even on the biggest names in the industry as some suffer catastrophic sales collapse and profit implosion.
The United States and Europe dominate the battleground news cycle because they are among the biggest markets for cars and their companies have a lot to lose if they make the wrong bet.
Things become more clouded as the world approaches the chasm of confidence for electric vehicles.
The chasm of confidence is the imaginary wall that any technology proponent faces as they try to convince the mass market to adopt them.
Like any technology, the electric car begins life pandering to those who love technology for the sake of technology; these buyers will fork out cash for any new technology because they want to be the one to experience it.
On the whole, this group of people are technology savvy, and they understand that being the first doesn't guarantee the perfect ownership experience but then, that is the whole point of being a pioneer; being on the cutting edge is not easy or comfortable.
Then comes the next group of nerds, and yes, the second group who are usually referred to as innovators are also nerds, and by that I mean people who have a love for technology and they only come in when they think that the tech now has the chance to make it into the mainstream.
As an illustration, the original Tesla Roadster, those are for the really brave, the bushwhackers of pioneers, then came the Model S and Model X which are designed for everyone but in reality only the innovators will buy because there is no infrastructure support for it.
Buyers of the Model S and X have to install chargers at home and wait for Tesla to build chargers before they can go out of town easily.
Then came the Model 3 and Y, and these are for the early adopters, who see that a path has been cleared; it's still just a path, not even a real road yet. The early adopters want to at least see that there is a way forward but they know it's not easy going and far from perfect.
Early adopters will help build the road
Once we have run out of early adopters, there is no other path but to start pitching for the mass market, and here it gets really tough.
When EVs were being pushed to innovators and early adopters, carmakers could appeal to their understanding that the technology is a work in progress, but when it comes to the mass market, they just don't care.
Early mass market adopters are not going to be sympathetic to the fact that technology limitations mean that you have to wait 15 minutes to charge your battery if you opt for an 800-volt car or 30 minutes if you choose 400 volts.
They'd say, "My petrol-powered car can be gassed up in five minutes; this is not going to work for me."
Mass market buyers don't care about the cost of technology; they only know what they are willing or able to pay for it, and it had better be the same price or cheaper than their internal combustion car.
Mass market buyers certainly will not want to have to learn anything new when they buy a car beyond where all the switches and toggles are.
So now carmakers have to come up with something that is faster, better, and cheaper than the existing cars that their mass market buyers already have.
This is a monster challenge because the cost of components is not quite at parity or cheaper than those needed to build conventional cars. Bloomberg New Energy predicts that battery costs will hit parity with engines in 2025.
Some carmakers are struggling with the software that is needed to run these new generation electric cars because in today's world, switches are expensive and all functions are run off a tablet on the centre of the dashboard.
Volkswagen famously sunk billions of euros into a new software company called Cariad, only to see it fumble in a big way and cause delays in key platform and product launches.
In short, most car companies do not have the capability to make electric cars faster, better, and cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles, and so they are staring into a market that wants what they cannot produce.
This lack of market confidence in the product, the infrastructure, and technology is common throughout; we saw the same hesitancy in the automotive world when car air conditioners were introduced to the Malaysian mass market in the 1970s, it didn't really take on until 10 years later, and the same went for automatic transmission.
Remember when we used to snigger at anyone who bought an automatic? Maybe he bought it for his wife, because real men drive manuals.
And what about keyboardless smartphones? Now that was a real headscratcher back in 2007 when Steve Jobs showed off the shiny iPhone, especially with BlackBerry and their beautifully made QWERTY keyboards dominating the market.
The chasm of confidence is what happens when you run out of well-to-do customers who can afford to try out new and unproven technology and now have to deal with average buyers whose choices will have serious financial impact if they are wrong.
They do not have the wide margin for error that early buyers have, and even if they do have the margin, they are not technology people who have the appetite for risk just to say they have the latest and greatest.
The world is running out of that small intersection in the Venn diagram of buyers who are affluent, adventurous risk-takers willing to become guinea pigs for new technology.
At the same time, many carmakers are losing money on every EV they sell; this includes startups like Lucid, Rivian, and possibly others in China.
Legacy carmakers, who have experience building millions of cars every year, are in the best position to capitalise on the market, but they are so heavily invested in ICE technology that they are staring at billions worth of assets that may become stranded if they move too fast into EVs.
This is why we hear carmakers asking their governments for a delay in the final date they can sell new fuel-powered vehicles.
While prolonging the age of ICE for just a few years may help traditional OEMs better manage their assets, the reality is the competition is not waiting for them.
Once the world figures out how to build a bridge across the chasm, then everyone will follow in quick time, and those who are holding onto ICE technology may not make it across in a healthy state.
While the costs of batteries and components are falling fast and are already making it possible for Chinese EV makers to offer new products that are almost the same price or cheaper than internal combustion engine cars, and the market seems to love them, western brands are struggling in the world's largest car market.
It's not the cost of components or the supply chain; it's likely the attitude of these organizations and their willingness to cut their losses and adapt to the new technology in time. After all, we see all the signs that the market wants to cross the chasm.
Hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales are off the chart in China. We saw the same thing happen in Norway five years ago as people now have genuine desire for electric cars but still lack confidence in the infrastructure to support them.
You know who will hold the hands of the market across the chasm? Existing owners of electric vehicles.
And this is why it is important that we build infrastructure now as Proton and Perodua are about to enter the market and have the potential to double or triple EV sales at the flick of a switch and we don't want owners to have bad stories to tell future buyers.