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EPF raises expectations for global growth, yet key risks remain

KUALA LUMPUR: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) maintains an optimistic outlook for both the domestic economy and the global market.

Its chief executive officer Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn said the EPF, which started 2024 on strong footing, achieved a growth acceleration of 4.2 per cent in the first quarter ended March 31, 2024 (Q1 2024) over the same period last year.

Malaysia's labour market remains healthy, with employment and the labour force participation rate continuing to rise, he added.

Malaysia is expected to continue recording solid growth in 2024, led by strong domestic demand and a recovery in exports.

Bank Negara Malaysia has forecast that the country's economy will grow between 4.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent this year and that inflation will stay moderate, averaging between 2.0 per cent and 3.5 per cent.

Ahmad Zulqarnain said Malaysia's robust economy has led to a resilient labour market, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.3 per cent in Q1 2024, from 3.5 per cent in the same period last year.

During the same period, the EPF saw 107,105 new member registrations by March 2024, bringing the total membership to 16.1 million.

A total of 8.6 million were active members, representing 50 per cent of Malaysia's 17.1 million labour force.

New employer registrations also showed strong growth of 20,080 during the period, bringing the total number of employers registered with the EPF to 608,433.

Total contributions received by the EPF increased from RM25.83 billion in Q1 2023 to RM29.13 billion in Q1 2024.

The quarter under review also saw the EPF maintaining an active-to-inactive member ratio of 53:47 in Q1 2024, consistent with the same period in the previous year, with 8.6 million active members from a total membership of 16.1 million.

Ahmad Zulqarnain said the increase in the number of Malaysians opting to save with the EPF, as well as current members making voluntary contributions, signifies the continued economic growth momentum of the country elevated by sound Malaysia Madani policies.

He added that the EPF will continue to enhance its capabilities to meet the evolving needs and expectations of members and employers, as well as build up its portfolio performance guided by its long-term strategic asset allocation.

To ensure more Malaysians from the informal sector and gig workers receive formal social protection coverage, the EPF continues to expand its i-Saraan coverage, enabling workers in the informal sector or without formal income to save for retirement with the EPF while also receiving government incentives.

Throughout Q1 2024, i-Saraan recorded new registrations of 146,171, boosting its total i-Saraan membership to 1.4 million, representing an increase of 43.9 per cent from 997,659 in the corresponding quarter last year.

On the global front, Ahmad Zulqarnain said the outlook for global growth this year has become more positive.

However, risks remain high due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of monetary policy tightening on growth and financial market stability, China's property market crisis, as well as geopolitical tensions that could push commodity prices higher and threaten global economic growth, he said in a statement.

Ahmad Zulqarnain said the performance of global markets in Q1 2024 was marked by resilient global growth, notably in advanced economies.

The FBM KLCI index has increased by 10 per cent year-to-date, reflecting increased confidence in the growth and impact of various new economic and industry policies,

"Internationally, the US economy continued to grow, lowering expectation for Fed rate cuts during the year, and major stock indices showcased strong rallies during the first quarter, led by a run-up in financial, healthcare, and technology stocks.

"Whilst first quarter results have been strong, financial markets remain subject to a number of risks that have been prevalent, namely 'high for longer' interest rates, geopolitical and conflict risks, and changes in policies resulting from a large number of elections being held in a number of large economies this year," added Ahmad Zulqarnain.

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